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Toss-up · 2020 House
New York House
In the 2020 New York House race, Lee M. Zeldin (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.3
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | R+1.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.146 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 60% | 0.157 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2020-10-076
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New York House race?
Lee M. Zeldin (R) won, by about 7.3 points (R+7.3).
When was the 2020 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.