Actual result
R+7.3
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.4 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | R+1.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 87% | 0.016 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 62% | 0.146 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 60% | 0.157 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2020-10-07 | 402 | R+1.0 | 6 |