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Toss-up · 2020 President
Arizona President
In the 2020 Arizona President race, Joe Biden (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+2.8
31 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data Orbital | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Basswood Research | R+0.1 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | HighGround Inc. | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+0.4 | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Targoz Market Research | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+2.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Morning Consult | D+2.3 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | AtlasIntel | R+2.3 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Y2 Analytics | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Latino Decisions | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.5 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 22 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Suffolk University | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Strategies 360 | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.6 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 28 | Swayable | D+4.9 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 29 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 30 | KFF | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 31 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 32 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 33 | The Justice Collaborative Institute | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 34 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 35 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+11.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 55% | 0.203 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
69 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Marist College2020-10-310
AtlasIntel2020-10-303
Ipsos2020-10-303
Emerson College2020-10-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arizona President race?
Joe Biden (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2020 Arizona President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.