Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+2.8
31 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.4 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data Orbital | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Basswood Research | R+0.1 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | HighGround Inc. | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+0.4 | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Targoz Market Research | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+2.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Morning Consult | D+2.3 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | AtlasIntel | R+2.3 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Y2 Analytics | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Latino Decisions | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 21 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.5 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Suffolk University | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | Strategies 360 | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 27 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.6 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 28 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 29 | Swayable | D+4.9 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 30 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 31 | KFF | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 32 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 33 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 34 | The Justice Collaborative Institute | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 35 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 36 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+11.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 54% | 0.209 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (69)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 409 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-31 | 717 | EVEN | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-30 | 641 | R+2.3 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-30 | 610 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 732 | D+2.1 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1195 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 360 | D+4.9 | 5 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-29 | 550 | D+0.6 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-28 | 889 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-28 | 1252 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-28 | 800 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-27 | 1002 | R+2.5 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 865 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 704 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1059 | D+2.3 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 4278 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 304 | D+8.6 | 8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-10-24 | 716 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-24 | 714 | EVEN | 0 |
| The Justice Collaborative Institute | 2020-10-24 | 1007 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-10-23 | 729 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-21 | 500 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 2020-10-21 | 725 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-10-19 | 700 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 232 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-18 | 658 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-18 | 800 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-17 | 550 | D+5.2 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-16 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-15 | 1074 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1066 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-12 | 750 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-11 | 667 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-11 | 502 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-09 | 720 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-07 | 1087 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-10-06 | 608 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-10-06 | 727 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 5945 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-04 | 550 | D+4.5 | 4 |
| Basswood Research | 2020-10-04 | 800 | R+0.1 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-03 | 633 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 296 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-02 | 655 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Latino Decisions | 2020-10-02 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2020-10-02 | 400 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-10-02 | 604 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-28 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-09-27 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2020-09-27 | 1045 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-09-26 | 800 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-25 | 871 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 808 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2020-09-24 | 138 | R+3.6 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-19 | 481 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 262 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-18 | 400 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-09-17 | 579 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-09-16 | 550 | D+2.7 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 855 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-13 | 565 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-13 | 420 | EVEN | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-12 | 653 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-09-12 | 679 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-09-10 | 684 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-10 | 1106 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-09-09 | 600 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| KFF | 2020-09-06 | 1298 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 470 | D+4.0 | 4 |