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Toss-up · 2020 President
Arizona President
In the 2020 Arizona President race, Joe Biden (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+2.8
31 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data Orbital | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | EVEN | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Basswood Research | R+0.1 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | RMG Research | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | HighGround Inc. | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+0.4 | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Targoz Market Research | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | ABC News/The Washington Post | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+2.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Morning Consult | D+2.3 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | AtlasIntel | R+2.3 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Y2 Analytics | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Latino Decisions | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.5 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 22 | SSRS | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Suffolk University | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Strategies 360 | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | OnMessage Inc. | R+3.6 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Rasmussen Reports | R+4.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 28 | Swayable | D+4.9 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 29 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 30 | KFF | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 31 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 32 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 33 | The Justice Collaborative Institute | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 34 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 35 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+11.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 55% | 0.203 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
69 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-313
Marist College2020-10-310
AtlasIntel2020-10-303
Ipsos2020-10-303
Emerson College2020-10-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arizona President race?
Joe Biden (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2020 Arizona President election held?
It was held in November 2020.