Actual result
D+29.2
Final polls said
D+31.3
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Binder Research | D+31.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+31.1 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+27.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | D+26.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | D+26.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+26.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+34.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+36.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+37.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Binder Research | 2020-10-30 | 800 | D+31.0 | 2 |
| University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | 2020-10-29 | 1155 | D+37.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 12370 | D+26.0 | 3 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 635 | D+26.7 | 2 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2020-10-18 | 5352 | D+36.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2020-10-13 | 1185 | D+26.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 22797 | D+26.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-27 | 558 | D+27.0 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-20 | 1885 | D+34.0 | 5 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2020-09-12 | 5942 | D+39.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2020-09-08 | 1168 | D+29.0 | 0 |