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Toss-up · 2020 President
California President
In the 2020 California President race, Bernard Sanders (D) won by about 29 points.
Actual result
D+29.2
Final polls said
D+31.3
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Binder Research | D+31.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+27.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Swayable | D+26.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+26.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+26.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+34.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+36.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+37.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
David Binder Research2020-10-302
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy2020-10-298
SurveyMonkey2020-10-263
Swayable2020-10-252
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2020-10-187
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California President race?
Bernard Sanders (D) won, by about 29.2 points (D+29.2).
When was the 2020 California President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.