← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 President
California President
In the 2020 California President race, Bernard Sanders (D) won by about 29 points.
Actual result
D+29.2
Final polls said
D+31.3
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Binder Research | D+31.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+27.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Swayable | D+26.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+26.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+26.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+34.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+36.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+37.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
David Binder Research2020-10-302
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy2020-10-298
SurveyMonkey2020-10-263
Swayable2020-10-252
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2020-10-187
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California President race?
Bernard Sanders (D) won, by about 29.2 points (D+29.2).
When was the 2020 California President election held?
It was held in November 2020.