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Toss-up · 2020 President
Michigan President
In the 2020 Michigan President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+2.8
Final polls said
D+7.4
39 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | D+2.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Wick | D+0.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | D+6.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Emerson College | D+6.5 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Change Research | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Research Co. | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | EPIC-MRA | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 15 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+7.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Morning Consult | D+7.3 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | Glengariff Group | D+7.7 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 19 | Marist College | D+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 20 | Impact Research | D+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 21 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 22 | Citizen Data | D+8.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 23 | Swayable | D+8.7 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 24 | Civiqs | D+9.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 25 | National Research | D+9.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 26 | Zia Poll | R+4.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 27 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 28 | Ipsos | D+10.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 29 | YouGov | D+10.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 30 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+11.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 31 | SSRS | D+12.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 32 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+12.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 33 | Kiaer Research | D+12.9 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 34 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+13.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 35 | Gravis Marketing | D+13.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 36 | Targoz Market Research | D+14.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
74 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-314
Research Co.2020-10-314
InsiderAdvantage2020-10-301
Emerson College2020-10-304
Trafalgar Group2020-10-305
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Michigan President race?
Joe Biden (D) won, by about 2.8 points (D+2.8).
When was the 2020 Michigan President election held?
It was held in November 2020.