Toss-up · 2020 President

Michigan President

In the 2020 Michigan President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

D+2.8

Final polls said

D+7.4

39 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	D+2.4	0.4	✓
2	InsiderAdvantage	D+2.1	0.7	✓
3	Data for Progress	D+5.0	2.2	✓
4	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+5.0	2.2	✓
5	Marketing Resource Group (MRG)	D+5.0	2.2	✓
6	Wick	D+0.3	2.5	✓
7	SurveyMonkey	D+6.0	3.2	✓
8	Emerson College	D+6.5	3.7	✓
9	Change Research	D+7.0	4.2	✓
10	Research Co.	D+7.0	4.2	✓
11	RMG Research	D+7.0	4.2	✓
12	EPIC-MRA	D+7.0	4.2	✓
13	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+7.0	4.2	✓
14	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	D+7.0	4.2	✓
15	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+7.1	4.3	✓
16	Morning Consult	D+7.3	4.5	✓
17	Glengariff Group	D+7.7	4.9	✓
18	The New York Times/Siena College	D+8.0	5.2	✓
19	Marist College	D+8.0	5.2	✓
20	Impact Research	D+8.0	5.2	✓
21	Trafalgar Group	R+2.5	5.3	✗
22	Citizen Data	D+8.1	5.4	✓
23	Swayable	D+8.7	5.9	✓
24	Civiqs	D+9.0	6.2	✓
25	National Research	D+9.0	6.2	✓
26	Zia Poll	R+4.0	6.8	✗
27	Public Policy Polling	D+10.0	7.2	✓
28	Ipsos	D+10.0	7.2	✓
29	YouGov	D+10.0	7.2	✓
30	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+11.0	8.2	✓
31	SSRS	D+12.0	9.2	✓
32	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+12.0	9.2	✓
33	Kiaer Research	D+12.9	10.1	✓
34	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+13.0	10.2	✓
35	Gravis Marketing	D+13.0	10.2	✓
36	Targoz Market Research	D+14.0	11.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 93%	0.006	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 81%	0.036	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—