Toss-up · 2020 President

New Jersey President

In the 2020 New Jersey President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 16 points.

Actual result

D+15.9

Final polls said

D+21.2

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Fairleigh Dickinson University	D+15.0	0.9	✓
2	Research Co.	D+18.0	2.1	✓
3	Emerson College	D+18.3	2.3	✓
4	Swayable	D+18.9	3.0	✓
5	Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy	D+20.5	4.6	✓
6	SurveyMonkey	D+21.0	5.1	✓
7	DKC Analytics	D+22.0	6.1	✓
8	Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling	D+24.0	8.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
9	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
10	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓