Actual result
D+15.9
Final polls said
D+21.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research Co. | D+18.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+18.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | D+18.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+20.2 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+20.5 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | D+21.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | DKC Analytics | D+22.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+24.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 324 | D+18.9 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 3870 | D+21.0 | 5 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 386 | D+24.1 | 8 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2020-10-21 | 872 | D+24.0 | 8 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2020-10-10 | 721 | D+20.5 | 5 |
| DKC Analytics | 2020-10-09 | 500 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 5121 | D+25.0 | 9 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2020-10-02 | 582 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| DKC Analytics | 2020-09-12 | 501 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-06 | 500 | D+18.3 | 2 |