Actual result
D+22.1
Final polls said
D+29.5
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+28.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+28.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+29.4 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+32.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Swayable | D+32.6 | 10.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2020-10-31 | 450 | D+28.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 6548 | D+28.0 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 495 | D+32.6 | 11 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 9962 | D+32.0 | 10 |
| Siena College | 2020-09-28 | 504 | D+32.0 | 10 |