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Pennsylvania President

Joe Biden (D) vs Donald Trump (R)

Actual result
D+1.2
Final polls said
D+4.8
48 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.7
✓
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1SwayableD+1.50.3✓
2AYTMD+2.00.8✓
3VotePredictorD+2.71.5✓
4Rasmussen ReportsD+3.01.8✓
5Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.R+0.82.0✗
6AtlasIntelR+1.12.3✗
7InsiderAdvantageR+1.32.5✗
8Change ResearchD+4.02.8✓
9Frederick PollsD+4.02.8✓
10Trafalgar GroupR+1.93.1✗
11WickR+2.13.3✗
12Emerson CollegeD+4.93.7✓
13CPECD+4.93.7✓
14Marist CollegeD+5.03.8✓
15Monmouth University Polling InstituteD+5.03.8✓
16Harris Insights & AnalyticsD+5.03.8✓
17Redfield & Wilton StrategiesD+5.03.8✓
18SurveyMonkeyD+5.03.8✓
19Muhlenberg College Institute of Public OpinionD+5.03.8✓
20Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion ResearchD+5.03.8✓
21Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchD+5.03.8✓
22Whitman Insight StrategiesD+5.03.8✓
23TIPP InsightsD+5.03.8✓
24Climate NexusD+5.03.8✓
25Baldwin Wallace University Community Research InstituteD+5.13.9✓
26Citizen DataD+5.34.2✓
27Research Co.D+6.04.8✓
28IpsosD+6.04.8✓
29The New York Times/Siena CollegeD+6.04.8✓
30RMG ResearchD+6.04.8✓
31Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion ResearchD+6.04.8✓
32Suffolk UniversityD+6.25.0✓
33Data for ProgressD+7.05.8✓
34Public Policy PollingD+7.05.8✓
35ABC News/The Washington PostD+7.05.8✓
36CiviqsD+7.05.8✓
37Quinnipiac UniversityD+7.05.8✓
38Gravis MarketingD+7.05.8✓
39TargetSmartD+7.05.8✓
40YouGovD+8.06.8✓
41Morning ConsultD+8.77.5✓
42SSRSD+10.08.8✓
43Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupD+11.09.8✓
44Targoz Market ResearchD+14.012.8✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#ForecasterWin probBrierCalled
1Race to the WHDem 97%0.001✓
2The EconomistDem 95%0.003✓
3JHK ForecastsDem 91%0.008✓
4Princeton Election ConsortiumDem 89%0.012✓
5FiveThirtyEightDem 84%0.026✓
6Cook PoliticalDem 75%0.062✓
7Elections DailyDem 75%0.062✓
8Inside ElectionsDem 75%0.062✓
9Sabato's Crystal BallDem 75%0.062✓
10DDHQ/Decision DeskDem 74%0.068✓
11VotePredictorDem 71%0.084✓
12CNalysisDem 60%0.160✓
13RealClearPoliticsDem 50%0.250—

Polls (89)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2020-11-01499R+0.82
Research Co.2020-10-31450D+6.05
Change Research2020-10-31699D+4.03
Marist College2020-10-31772D+5.04
AYTM2020-10-31340D+2.01
Rasmussen Reports2020-10-31800D+3.02
Frederick Polls2020-10-30879D+4.03
Swayable2020-10-301107D+1.50
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-30502D+5.04
Trafalgar Group2020-10-301062R+1.93
InsiderAdvantage2020-10-30500R+1.32
Emerson College2020-10-29823D+4.94
Data for Progress2020-10-291417D+7.06
Ipsos2020-10-29673D+6.05
AtlasIntel2020-10-29672R+1.12
Harris Insights & Analytics2020-10-28901D+5.04
The New York Times/Siena College2020-10-281862D+6.05
Redfield & Wilton Strategies2020-10-282125D+5.04
Public Policy Polling2020-10-281012D+7.06
Wick2020-10-271000R+2.13
Targoz Market Research2020-10-27998D+14.013
SurveyMonkey2020-10-266045D+5.04
Morning Consult2020-10-262686D+8.78
ABC News/The Washington Post2020-10-26810D+7.06
RMG Research2020-10-26800D+6.05
Civiqs2020-10-251145D+7.06
InsiderAdvantage2020-10-25400R+2.94
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2020-10-25419D+5.04
Quinnipiac University2020-10-251324D+7.06
Swayable2020-10-25491D+5.85
Trafalgar Group2020-10-241076R+0.82
Gravis Marketing2020-10-23602D+7.06
Ipsos2020-10-23655D+7.06
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2020-10-22558D+6.05
Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research2020-10-21723D+5.04
Public Policy Polling2020-10-21890D+5.04
Citizen Data2020-10-191000D+5.34
Civiqs2020-10-191577D+6.05
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2020-10-191045D+5.04
Change Research2020-10-18574D+2.01
Quinnipiac University2020-10-181241D+8.07
Rasmussen Reports2020-10-18800D+3.02
SSRS2020-10-17843D+10.09
Suffolk University2020-10-17500D+6.25
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2020-10-17416D+7.06
YouGov2020-10-17669D+8.07
Ipsos2020-10-16653D+4.03
Morning Consult2020-10-152563D+9.08
Harris Insights & Analytics2020-10-14992D+5.04
Trafalgar Group2020-10-141041D+1.10
YouGov2020-10-132703D+8.07
Redfield & Wilton Strategies2020-10-121289D+8.07
InsiderAdvantage2020-10-12400D+3.22
Trafalgar Group2020-10-111034D+2.31
Civiqs2020-10-10600D+7.06
RMG Research2020-10-09800D+6.05
Redfield & Wilton Strategies2020-10-091145D+5.04
Ipsos2020-10-08622D+6.05
Whitman Insight Strategies2020-10-07517D+5.04
SurveyMonkey2020-10-058803D+6.05
Redfield & Wilton Strategies2020-10-05927D+7.06
Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute2020-10-041140D+5.14
Emerson College2020-10-04688D+3.42
Quinnipiac University2020-10-031211D+13.012
Change Research2020-10-03468D+4.03
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-02500D+8.07
Ipsos2020-10-02605D+5.04
The New York Times/Siena College2020-10-01706D+7.06
YouGov2020-10-011187D+7.06
The New York Times/Siena College2020-09-26711D+9.08
TIPP Insights2020-09-25774D+5.04
Redfield & Wilton Strategies2020-09-241015D+6.05
ABC News/The Washington Post2020-09-23568D+9.08
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2020-09-22856D+7.06
Trafalgar Group2020-09-201006D+2.21
Change Research2020-09-19579D+4.03
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2020-09-18400D+11.010
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2020-09-17480D+6.05
Trafalgar Group2020-09-161006D+2.41
YouGov2020-09-16642D+4.03
CPEC2020-09-16820D+4.94
Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute2020-09-151012D+2.72
Redfield & Wilton Strategies2020-09-131036D+5.04
Ipsos2020-09-13611D+3.02
Civiqs2020-09-13549D+7.06
Climate Nexus2020-09-10659D+5.04
TargetSmart2020-09-05835D+7.06
Change Research2020-09-05829D+4.03
Marist College2020-09-04771D+9.08