Toss-up · 2020 President

Pennsylvania President

In the 2020 Pennsylvania President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 1 point.

Actual result

D+1.2

Final polls said

D+4.8

48 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Swayable	D+1.5	0.3	✓
2	AYTM	D+2.0	0.8	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	D+3.0	1.8	✓
4	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	R+0.8	2.0	✗
5	AtlasIntel	R+1.1	2.3	✗
6	InsiderAdvantage	R+1.3	2.5	✗
7	Change Research	D+4.0	2.8	✓
8	Frederick Polls	D+4.0	2.8	✓
9	Trafalgar Group	R+1.9	3.1	✗
10	Wick	R+2.1	3.3	✗
11	Emerson College	D+4.9	3.7	✓
12	CPEC	D+4.9	3.7	✓
13	Marist College	D+5.0	3.8	✓
14	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+5.0	3.8	✓
15	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+5.0	3.8	✓
16	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+5.0	3.8	✓
17	SurveyMonkey	D+5.0	3.8	✓
18	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+5.0	3.8	✓
19	Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	D+5.0	3.8	✓
20	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+5.0	3.8	✓
21	Whitman Insight Strategies	D+5.0	3.8	✓
22	TIPP Insights	D+5.0	3.8	✓
23	Climate Nexus	D+5.0	3.8	✓
24	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	D+5.1	3.9	✓
25	Citizen Data	D+5.3	4.2	✓
26	Research Co.	D+6.0	4.8	✓
27	Ipsos	D+6.0	4.8	✓
28	The New York Times/Siena College	D+6.0	4.8	✓
29	RMG Research	D+6.0	4.8	✓
30	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+6.0	4.8	✓
31	Suffolk University	D+6.2	5.0	✓
32	Data for Progress	D+7.0	5.8	✓
33	Public Policy Polling	D+7.0	5.8	✓
34	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+7.0	5.8	✓
35	Civiqs	D+7.0	5.8	✓
36	Quinnipiac University	D+7.0	5.8	✓
37	Gravis Marketing	D+7.0	5.8	✓
38	TargetSmart	D+7.0	5.8	✓
39	YouGov	D+8.0	6.8	✓
40	Morning Consult	D+8.7	7.5	✓
41	SSRS	D+10.0	8.8	✓
42	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+11.0	9.8	✓
43	Targoz Market Research	D+14.0	12.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 74%	0.068	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 71%	0.085	✓
12	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—