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Toss-up · 2020 President
Pennsylvania President
In the 2020 Pennsylvania President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.2
Final polls said
D+4.8
48 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | D+1.5 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | AYTM | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | D+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+0.8 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | AtlasIntel | R+1.1 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.3 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 7 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Frederick Polls | D+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.9 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Wick | R+2.1 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+4.9 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | CPEC | D+4.9 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | SurveyMonkey | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 18 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 19 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 20 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 21 | Whitman Insight Strategies | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 22 | TIPP Insights | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 23 | Climate Nexus | D+5.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 24 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+5.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 25 | Citizen Data | D+5.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 26 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 27 | Ipsos | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 28 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 29 | RMG Research | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 30 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 31 | Suffolk University | D+6.2 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 32 | Data for Progress | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 33 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 34 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 35 | Civiqs | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 36 | Quinnipiac University | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 37 | Gravis Marketing | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 38 | TargetSmart | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 39 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 40 | Morning Consult | D+8.7 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 41 | SSRS | D+10.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 42 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+11.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 43 | Targoz Market Research | D+14.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 71% | 0.085 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
89 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2020-11-012
Research Co.2020-10-315
Change Research2020-10-313
Marist College2020-10-314
AYTM2020-10-311
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Pennsylvania President race?
Joe Biden (D) won, by about 1.2 points (D+1.2).
When was the 2020 Pennsylvania President election held?
It was held in November 2020.