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Toss-up · 2020 President
Texas President
In the 2020 Texas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+5.6
Final polls said
R+1.1
20 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+5.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | RMG Research | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | R+2.7 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+1.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+1.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Morning Consult | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | Civiqs | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | EMC Research | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 17 | Data for Progress | D+1.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 20 | Citizen Data | D+3.9 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
35 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2020-10-303
Swayable2020-10-302
Emerson College2020-10-305
Data for Progress2020-10-297
Public Policy Polling2020-10-288
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 5.6 points (R+5.6).
When was the 2020 Texas President election held?
It was held in November 2020.