Actual result
R+5.6
Final polls said
R+1.1
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+5.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+4.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Swayable | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | RMG Research | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | R+3.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | AtlasIntel | R+2.7 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Emerson College | R+1.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+1.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Morning Consult | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 15 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | Civiqs | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 17 | EMC Research | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | Data for Progress | D+1.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 19 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 20 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 21 | Citizen Data | D+3.9 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2020-10-30 | 962 | R+2.7 | 3 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-30 | 1151 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 763 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 926 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-28 | 775 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-27 | 800 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 670 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 9226 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 3267 | EVEN | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 552 | R+1.1 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-24 | 1018 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-23 | 873 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-22 | 802 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 2020-10-21 | 758 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | D+3.9 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-18 | 1145 | EVEN | 6 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 2020-10-17 | 925 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-17 | 933 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-17 | 1000 | R+5.3 | 0 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 3347 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-13 | 2947 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-07 | 721 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 14204 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-05 | 895 | EVEN | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-05 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-02 | 1949 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| EMC Research | 2020-09-29 | 848 | EVEN | 6 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-29 | 908 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-25 | 612 | EVEN | 6 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-22 | 882 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-19 | 1078 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-19 | 726 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-19 | 653 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-17 | 1140 | R+2.0 | 4 |