Toss-up · 2020 President

Texas President

In the 2020 Texas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

R+5.6

Final polls said

R+1.1

20 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	YouGov	R+5.3	0.3	✓
2	Gravis Marketing	R+5.0	0.6	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	R+7.0	1.4	✓
4	Swayable	R+4.0	1.6	✓
5	RMG Research	R+4.0	1.6	✓
6	SurveyMonkey	R+4.0	1.6	✓
7	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.0	1.6	✓
8	Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	R+3.0	2.6	✓
9	AtlasIntel	R+2.7	2.9	✓
10	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	R+2.0	3.6	✓
11	Emerson College	R+1.0	4.6	✓
12	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	R+1.0	4.6	✓
13	Morning Consult	EVEN	5.6	✗
14	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	5.6	✗
15	Civiqs	EVEN	5.6	✗
16	EMC Research	EVEN	5.6	✗
17	Data for Progress	D+1.0	6.6	✗
18	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	7.6	✗
19	University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research	D+3.0	8.6	✗
20	Citizen Data	D+3.9	9.5	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 87%	0.018	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 79%	0.044	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	The Economist	Rep 70%	0.090	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 70%	0.090	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 66%	0.116	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 62%	0.144	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 61%	0.152	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗