Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+3.3
32 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | D+1.5 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | R+5.3 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+2.6 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Harper Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 16 | Emerson College | D+3.2 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | Suffolk University | D+3.8 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 18 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 19 | Frederick Polls | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | Meeting Street Insights | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | KFF | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 23 | Morning Consult | D+4.9 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 25 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+5.1 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 26 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 27 | Civiqs | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 28 | Citizen Data | D+6.1 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 29 | Swayable | D+6.4 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 30 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 32 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+11.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 33 | Impact Research | D+12.0 | 13.8 | ✗ |
| 34 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+13.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 68% | 0.463 | ✗ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
Polls (65)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 473 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-30 | 619 | D+6.4 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 855 | D+3.2 | 5 |
| Frederick Polls | 2020-10-30 | 676 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 908 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-29 | 707 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-28 | 800 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-27 | 1103 | D+1.5 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 901 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-27 | 800 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 2020-10-27 | 750 | R+5.3 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-26 | 614 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1982 | D+4.9 | 7 |
| Meeting Street Insights | 2020-10-26 | 600 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-26 | 937 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 627 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-25 | 1034 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 363 | R+0.6 | 1 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-25 | 800 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| Harper Polling | 2020-10-24 | 504 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-24 | 647 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-23 | 911 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-22 | 1022 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-21 | 1098 | R+1.8 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-20 | 800 | EVEN | 2 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | D+6.1 | 8 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2020-10-18 | 732 | D+5.1 | 7 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 521 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-17 | 1155 | D+1.4 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-17 | 660 | EVEN | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-17 | 929 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1904 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-10-14 | 646 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-13 | 1211 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-13 | 721 | D+1.1 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 627 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 669 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-10 | 660 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-10 | 500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-09 | 800 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-09 | 500 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-04 | 911 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-03 | 1232 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-03 | 601 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 396 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-02 | 1285 | D+11.0 | 13 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-26 | 400 | D+13.0 | 15 |
| Impact Research | 2020-09-25 | 822 | D+12.0 | 14 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-24 | 1213 | D+10.0 | 12 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-22 | 921 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2020-09-20 | 705 | D+1.3 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 579 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Harper Polling | 2020-09-19 | 612 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-17 | 717 | D+6.0 | 8 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 1604 | D+9.0 | 11 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 1092 | D+11.0 | 13 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-13 | 653 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-13 | 586 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-13 | 500 | D+3.8 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-12 | 596 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| SSRS | 2020-09-11 | 787 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-09-10 | 1046 | D+0.8 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-09-07 | 1000 | D+2.7 | 4 |
| KFF | 2020-09-06 | 1172 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 442 | D+7.0 | 9 |