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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
North Carolina Senate
In the 2020 North Carolina Senate race, Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+3.3
32 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | D+1.5 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | R+5.3 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Harper Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Emerson College | D+3.2 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Suffolk University | D+3.8 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 17 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 18 | Frederick Polls | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 19 | Meeting Street Insights | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | KFF | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Morning Consult | D+4.9 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+5.1 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 25 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 26 | Civiqs | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 27 | Citizen Data | D+6.1 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 28 | Swayable | D+6.4 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 29 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 30 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+11.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 32 | Impact Research | D+12.0 | 13.8 | ✗ |
| 33 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+13.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.458 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
65 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-316
Swayable2020-10-308
Emerson College2020-10-305
Frederick Polls2020-10-306
Data for Progress2020-10-297
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina Senate race?
Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won, by about 1.8 points (R+1.8).
When was the 2020 North Carolina Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.