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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
North Carolina Senate
In the 2020 North Carolina Senate race, Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.8
Final polls said
D+3.3
32 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | D+1.5 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | R+5.3 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Harper Polling | D+3.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Emerson College | D+3.2 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Suffolk University | D+3.8 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 17 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 18 | Frederick Polls | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 19 | Meeting Street Insights | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 20 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | KFF | D+4.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Morning Consult | D+4.9 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+5.1 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 25 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 26 | Civiqs | D+6.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 27 | Citizen Data | D+6.1 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 28 | Swayable | D+6.4 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 29 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 30 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 31 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+11.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 32 | Impact Research | D+12.0 | 13.8 | ✗ |
| 33 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+13.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 68% | 0.461 | ✗ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 68% | 0.462 | ✗ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 13 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 81% | 0.656 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
65 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-316
Swayable2020-10-308
Emerson College2020-10-305
Frederick Polls2020-10-306
Data for Progress2020-10-297
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 North Carolina Senate race?
Thomas Roland Tillis (R) won, by about 1.8 points (R+1.8).
When was the 2020 North Carolina Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.