Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Virginia Senate

In the 2020 Virginia Senate race, Mark R. Warner (D) won by about 12 points.

Mark R. Warner· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+12.1

Final polls said

D+18.1

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Civiqs	D+11.0	1.1	✓
2	Data for Progress	D+15.0	2.9	✓
3	Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research	D+16.0	3.9	✓
4	Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs	D+17.0	4.9	✓
5	Reconnect Research/Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research	D+17.0	4.9	✓
6	Cygnal	D+7.1	5.0	✓
7	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	D+18.0	5.9	✓
8	Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership	D+20.0	7.9	✓
9	Swayable	D+21.4	9.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
4	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
8	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
9	Race to the WH	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓