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Toss-up · 2021 Governor
New Jersey Governor
In the 2021 New Jersey Governor race, Philip Murphy (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
D+7.4
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | D+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | D+4.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+4.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Schoen Cooperman Research | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+11.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2021-10-313
Trafalgar Group2021-10-301
Fairleigh Dickinson University2021-10-256
Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling2021-10-245
Monmouth University Polling Institute2021-10-238
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2021 New Jersey Governor race?
Philip Murphy (D) won, by about 3.2 points (D+3.2).
When was the 2021 New Jersey Governor election held?
It was held in November 2021.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.