Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
D+7.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | D+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | D+4.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+4.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Schoen Cooperman Research | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+11.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2021-10-31 | 450 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2021-10-30 | 1085 | D+4.2 | 1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2021-10-25 | 823 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2021-10-24 | 901 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2021-10-23 | 1000 | D+11.0 | 8 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2021-10-21 | 522 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2021-10-17 | 600 | D+4.4 | 1 |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | 2021-10-11 | 500 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2021-09-21 | 552 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2021-09-18 | 804 | D+13.0 | 10 |
| National Research | 2021-09-15 | 600 | D+3.0 | 0 |