Actual result
R+1.9
Final polls said
R+0.8
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | KAConsulting | R+2.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Trafalgar Group | R+2.3 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | R+1.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Echelon Insights | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cygnal | EVEN | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 8 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | EVEN | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 9 | co/efficient | R+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | D+0.4 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+0.9 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 15 | Repass | R+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 16 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 18 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 19 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 20 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 21 | Schoen Cooperman Research | D+4.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 22 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+8.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 23 | Data for Progress | D+5.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
Polls (33)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2021-10-31 | 450 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2021-10-30 | 1081 | R+2.3 | 0 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2021-10-29 | 747 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2021-10-29 | 500 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2021-10-28 | 611 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2021-10-26 | 1015 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2021-10-23 | 500 | D+0.4 | 2 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2021-10-23 | 918 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2021-10-22 | 875 | D+0.9 | 3 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2021-10-21 | 571 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2021-10-21 | 944 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| co/efficient | 2021-10-20 | 785 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| KAConsulting | 2021-10-20 | 661 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Cygnal | 2021-10-20 | 816 | EVEN | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2021-10-18 | 1005 | EVEN | 2 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 2021-10-15 | 722 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2021-10-12 | 726 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2021-10-12 | 1095 | R+0.9 | 1 |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | 2021-10-11 | 500 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2021-10-10 | 1589 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2021-10-08 | 1040 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2021-10-02 | 620 | R+0.1 | 2 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2021-10-01 | 802 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2021-09-28 | 901 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2021-09-24 | 801 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2021-09-19 | 603 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| KAConsulting | 2021-09-18 | 700 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2021-09-18 | 600 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2021-09-17 | 875 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2021-09-13 | 778 | D+3.2 | 5 |
| Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs | 2021-09-11 | 731 | D+9.0 | 11 |
| Repass | 2021-09-10 | 528 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2021-09-10 | 728 | D+3.0 | 5 |