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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
California Governor
In the 2022 California Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
D+18.4
Final polls said
D+20.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+19.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+21.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | ActiVote | D+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+24.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2022-11-052
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy2022-11-016
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2022-10-283
YouGov2022-10-191
Public Policy Institute of California2022-10-181
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California Governor race?
Gavin Newsom (D) won, by about 18.4 points (D+18.4).
When was the 2022 California Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.