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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
California Governor
In the 2022 California Governor race, Gavin Newsom (D) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
D+18.4
Final polls said
D+20.6
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+19.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+21.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | ActiVote | D+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+24.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2022-11-052
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy2022-11-016
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies2022-10-283
YouGov2022-10-191
Public Policy Institute of California2022-10-181
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California Governor race?
Gavin Newsom (D) won, by about 18.4 points (D+18.4).
When was the 2022 California Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.