Actual result
D+18.4
Final polls said
D+20.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+21.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+19.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+19.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | D+21.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+21.2 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | ActiVote | D+22.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+24.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+20.0 | 2 |
| University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | 2022-11-01 | 802 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2022-10-28 | 5972 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-19 | 860 | D+19.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2022-10-18 | 1111 | D+19.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-09 | 1013 | D+22.0 | 4 |
| University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies | 2022-09-24 | 6939 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-12 | 200 | D+22.0 | 4 |