Toss-up · 2022 Governor

Florida Governor

In the 2022 Florida Governor race, Ron DeSantis (R) won by about 19 points.

Actual result

R+19.4

Final polls said

R+9.9

16 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Data for Progress	R+15.0	4.4	✓
2	Research Co.	R+14.0	5.4	✓
3	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	R+14.0	5.4	✓
4	Amber Integrated	R+13.0	6.4	✓
5	Victory Insights	R+12.7	6.7	✓
6	Siena College	R+12.0	7.4	✓
7	ActiVote	R+12.0	7.4	✓
8	Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative	R+11.2	8.2	✓
9	Cherry Communications	R+11.0	8.4	✓
10	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+11.0	8.4	✓
11	InsiderAdvantage	R+10.0	9.4	✓
12	YouGov	R+10.0	9.4	✓
13	Sachs Media	R+10.0	9.4	✓
14	RMG Research	R+10.0	9.4	✓
15	Civiqs	R+9.0	10.4	✓
16	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	R+8.0	11.4	✓
17	Suffolk University	R+6.8	12.6	✓
18	African American Research Collaborative	R+5.0	14.4	✓
19	The Political Matrix/The Listener Group	R+4.0	15.4	✓
20	Center Street PAC	R+3.0	16.4	✓
21	Clarity Campaign Labs	R+1.0	18.4	✓