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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Iowa Governor
In the 2022 Iowa Governor race, Kim Reynolds (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+18.5
Final polls said
R+16.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+19.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+17.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Civiqs | R+12.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer & Co.2022-11-022
Cygnal2022-10-260
Civiqs2022-10-247
Tarrance Group2022-10-172
Selzer & Co.2022-10-112
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Iowa Governor race?
Kim Reynolds (R) won, by about 18.5 points (R+18.5).
When was the 2022 Iowa Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.