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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Iowa Governor
In the 2022 Iowa Governor race, Kim Reynolds (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+18.5
Final polls said
R+16.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+19.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+17.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Civiqs | R+12.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer & Co.2022-11-022
Cygnal2022-10-260
Civiqs2022-10-247
Tarrance Group2022-10-172
Selzer & Co.2022-10-112
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Iowa Governor race?
Kim Reynolds (R) won, by about 18.5 points (R+18.5).
When was the 2022 Iowa Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.