Actual result
R+18.5
Final polls said
R+16.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+19.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+19.6 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+17.3 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Selzer & Co. | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Tarrance Group | R+17.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Civiqs | R+12.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2022-11-02 | 801 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-26 | 600 | R+19.0 | 0 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-24 | 623 | R+12.0 | 7 |
| Tarrance Group | 2022-10-17 | 600 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2022-10-11 | 620 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-03 | 600 | R+20.6 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-03 | 959 | R+17.3 | 1 |