Actual result
D+10.5
Final polls said
D+4.3
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | D+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | D+8.6 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | KAConsulting | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+4.6 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cygnal | D+3.7 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Wick | D+1.3 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.2 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.3 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-06 | 1097 | R+0.3 | 11 |
| Cygnal | 2022-11-03 | 1603 | D+3.7 | 7 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2022-11-03 | 658 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2022-10-30 | 600 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 900 | D+5.1 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-30 | 550 | R+0.2 | 11 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-29 | 1584 | D+6.4 | 4 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-10-28 | 501 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Wick | 2022-10-28 | 1137 | D+1.3 | 9 |
| Glengariff Group | 2022-10-27 | 600 | D+8.6 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-23 | 1378 | D+6.1 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-20 | 1079 | D+0.5 | 10 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2022-10-19 | 541 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-17 | 1793 | D+5.8 | 5 |
| SSRS | 2022-10-15 | 651 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-13 | 580 | D+5.4 | 5 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-13 | 640 | D+5.1 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-11 | 550 | D+0.5 | 10 |
| Wick | 2022-10-11 | 1136 | R+0.8 | 11 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2022-10-09 | 600 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-05 | 1285 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Glengariff Group | 2022-09-28 | 600 | D+17.3 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-26 | 1075 | D+5.8 | 5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2022-09-17 | 600 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2022-09-10 | 800 | D+11.0 | 0 |