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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Michigan Governor
In the 2022 Michigan Governor race, Gretchen Whitmer (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+10.5
Final polls said
D+4.3
15 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | D+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | D+8.6 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | KAConsulting | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cygnal | D+3.7 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Wick | D+1.3 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.2 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.3 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 73% | 0.071 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-11-0611
Cygnal2022-11-037
Mitchell Research & Communications2022-11-039
EPIC-MRA2022-10-300
Emerson College2022-10-305
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Michigan Governor race?
Gretchen Whitmer (D) won, by about 10.5 points (D+10.5).
When was the 2022 Michigan Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.