← all past elections
Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Michigan Governor
In the 2022 Michigan Governor race, Gretchen Whitmer (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+10.5
Final polls said
D+4.3
15 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | D+11.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | D+8.6 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | KAConsulting | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cygnal | D+3.7 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Wick | D+1.3 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | R+0.2 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.3 | 10.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-11-0611
Cygnal2022-11-037
Mitchell Research & Communications2022-11-039
EPIC-MRA2022-10-300
Emerson College2022-10-305
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Michigan Governor race?
Gretchen Whitmer (D) won, by about 10.5 points (D+10.5).
When was the 2022 Michigan Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.