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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
New Mexico Governor
In the 2022 New Mexico Governor race, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+3.9
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | D+1.8 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.1 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-275
Research & Polling Inc.2022-10-242
SurveyUSA2022-10-231
Trafalgar Group2022-10-207
Public Policy Polling2022-10-062
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Mexico Governor race?
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won, by about 6.4 points (D+6.4).
When was the 2022 New Mexico Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.