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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
New Mexico Governor
In the 2022 New Mexico Governor race, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+3.9
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | D+1.8 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.1 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-275
Research & Polling Inc.2022-10-242
SurveyUSA2022-10-231
Trafalgar Group2022-10-207
Public Policy Polling2022-10-062
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Mexico Governor race?
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) won, by about 6.4 points (D+6.4).
When was the 2022 New Mexico Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.