Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+3.9
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.9 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cygnal | D+1.8 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.1 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 1000 | D+1.6 | 5 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2022-10-24 | 1254 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-23 | 650 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-20 | 1077 | R+1.1 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-10-06 | 806 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-03 | 570 | D+16.0 | 10 |
| Cygnal | 2022-09-28 | 400 | D+1.8 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-10 | 1000 | D+4.9 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-09-10 | 558 | D+12.0 | 6 |