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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
New York Governor
In the 2022 New York Governor race, Kathy C. Hochul (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+7.2
13 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slingshot Strategies | D+6.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Schoen Cooperman Research | D+6.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+5.8 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Patriot Polling | D+5.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+8.7 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Research Co. | D+10.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | ActiVote | D+10.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Civiqs | D+11.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Siena College | D+11.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | KAConsulting | D+1.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Data for Progress | D+12.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.8 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | co/efficient | R+1.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Bold Decision | D+15.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 19 | Public Policy Polling | D+15.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2022-11-053
Patriot Polling2022-11-022
Emerson College2022-10-301
Trafalgar Group2022-10-298
KAConsulting2022-10-286
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York Governor race?
Kathy C. Hochul (D) won, by about 6.4 points (D+6.4).
When was the 2022 New York Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.