Actual result
D+7.3
Final polls said
D+7.2
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+8.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Slingshot Strategies | D+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Schoen Cooperman Research | D+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+8.7 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+5.8 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Patriot Polling | D+5.1 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Research Co. | D+10.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+10.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | ActiVote | D+10.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Civiqs | D+11.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Siena College | D+11.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Data for Progress | D+12.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | KAConsulting | D+1.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 17 | Bold Decision | D+15.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Public Policy Polling | D+15.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.8 | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 20 | co/efficient | R+1.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-11-02 | 826 | D+5.1 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 1000 | D+8.7 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-29 | 1198 | R+0.8 | 8 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-10-28 | 501 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-27 | 818 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2022-10-25 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-24 | 593 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-22 | 1000 | D+7.2 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-19 | 796 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-18 | 1056 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Bold Decision | 2022-10-18 | 1204 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-16 | 702 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-10-14 | 1617 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-13 | 707 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | 2022-10-10 | 824 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-05 | 1117 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-02 | 1087 | D+1.9 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2022-09-23 | 800 | D+5.8 | 1 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-22 | 260 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-20 | 655 | D+17.0 | 10 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-11 | 931 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-09-08 | 500 | D+15.0 | 8 |