Actual result
R+25.0
Final polls said
R+19.9
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+24.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | R+24.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Siena College | R+24.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | R+23.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | R+22.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+21.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | R+20.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Targoz Market Research | R+30.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy | R+31.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cygnal | R+18.9 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | R+18.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | R+16.6 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+16.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | ActiVote | R+16.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | Civiqs | R+14.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Center Street PAC | R+13.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Marist College | R+13.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 18 | Fallon Research & Communications | R+12.5 | 12.5 | ✓ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | 2022-11-06 | 716 | R+14.0 | 11 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+22.0 | 3 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 505 | R+30.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1413 | R+24.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-04 | 1123 | R+24.5 | 1 |
| Cygnal | 2022-11-02 | 1498 | R+18.9 | 6 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1125 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 1000 | R+20.8 | 4 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-28 | 1510 | R+20.5 | 5 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-25 | 508 | R+13.0 | 12 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2022-10-22 | 1068 | R+16.6 | 8 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-22 | 1886 | R+17.6 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-19 | 1141 | R+13.0 | 12 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-16 | 1438 | R+21.1 | 4 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2022-10-16 | 568 | R+16.0 | 9 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-16 | 644 | R+24.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-13 | 500 | R+18.0 | 7 |
| Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy | 2022-10-13 | 668 | R+31.0 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-11 | 1081 | R+17.4 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-09 | 1016 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-07 | 640 | R+22.3 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-06 | 1000 | R+13.6 | 11 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-01 | 538 | R+14.0 | 11 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-21 | 248 | R+16.0 | 9 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-20 | 642 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2022-09-14 | 855 | R+17.8 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-14 | 1200 | R+18.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-12 | 1000 | R+16.7 | 8 |
| Civiqs | 2022-09-12 | 780 | R+3.0 | 22 |
| Fallon Research & Communications | 2022-09-08 | 600 | R+12.5 | 13 |