Actual result
D+14.8
Final polls said
D+11.4
24 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | D+15.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SSRS | D+15.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+14.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+13.6 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+16.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+13.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Research Co. | D+12.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Remington Research Group | D+12.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | D+12.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Echelon Insights | D+12.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | D+11.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+11.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Emerson College | D+10.4 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | co/efficient | D+10.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 16 | ActiVote | D+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | InsiderAdvantage | D+7.7 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 18 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+22.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 19 | Patriot Polling | D+6.5 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 20 | Targoz Market Research | D+6.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 21 | Wick | D+5.9 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 22 | Center Street PAC | D+25.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 23 | Trafalgar Group | D+4.3 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 24 | Phillips Academy | D+3.4 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 25 | Rasmussen Reports | D+3.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Polls (40)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 631 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-11-04 | 846 | D+6.5 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-03 | 750 | D+7.7 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-02 | 1097 | D+4.3 | 10 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1180 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2022-11-01 | 1152 | D+15.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 1000 | D+10.4 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2022-10-30 | 700 | D+13.6 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-29 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1005 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-27 | 1716 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-26 | 750 | D+8.4 | 6 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2022-10-26 | 460 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Wick | 2022-10-26 | 1000 | D+5.9 | 9 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-25 | 1053 | D+25.0 | 10 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-25 | 620 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-23 | 1084 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Echelon Insights | 2022-10-19 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-19 | 550 | D+6.3 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2022-10-19 | 972 | D+3.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-19 | 850 | D+15.0 | 0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2022-10-18 | 384 | D+22.0 | 7 |
| SSRS | 2022-10-15 | 703 | D+15.0 | 0 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-10-11 | 857 | D+5.4 | 9 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1013 | D+2.1 | 13 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-10 | 1078 | D+9.3 | 5 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-10-08 | 1400 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-09-30 | 1153 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-29 | 500 | D+11.4 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-25 | 1000 | D+10.1 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1008 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-09-23 | 500 | D+14.8 | 0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2022-09-22 | 517 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-21 | 249 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-21 | 1242 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-09-18 | 759 | D+3.4 | 11 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2022-09-15 | 420 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-14 | 1078 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2022-09-09 | 1194 | D+11.0 | 4 |