Toss-up · 2022 Governor

Pennsylvania Governor

In the 2022 Pennsylvania Governor race, Josh Shapiro (D) won by about 15 points.

Actual result

D+14.8

Final polls said

D+11.4

24 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Marist College	D+15.0	0.2	✓
2	SSRS	D+15.0	0.2	✓
3	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+14.0	0.8	✓
4	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+13.6	1.2	✓
5	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+16.0	1.2	✓
6	The New York Times/Siena College	D+13.0	1.8	✓
7	Research Co.	D+12.0	2.8	✓
8	Remington Research Group	D+12.0	2.8	✓
9	Suffolk University	D+12.0	2.8	✓
10	Echelon Insights	D+12.0	2.8	✓
11	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+11.0	3.8	✓
12	Emerson College	D+10.4	4.4	✓
13	co/efficient	D+10.0	4.8	✓
14	YouGov	D+9.0	5.8	✓
15	ActiVote	D+8.0	6.8	✓
16	InsiderAdvantage	D+7.7	7.1	✓
17	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+22.0	7.2	✓
18	Patriot Polling	D+6.5	8.3	✓
19	Targoz Market Research	D+6.0	8.8	✓
20	Wick	D+5.9	8.9	✓
21	Center Street PAC	D+25.0	10.2	✓
22	Trafalgar Group	D+4.3	10.5	✓
23	Phillips Academy	D+3.4	11.4	✓
24	Rasmussen Reports	D+3.0	11.8	✓