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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Texas Governor
In the 2022 Texas Governor race, Greg Abbott (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.9
Final polls said
R+8.8
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CWS Research | R+11.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | R+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+9.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | R+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Civiqs | R+8.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | R+7.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | R+7.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | ActiVote | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Beacon Research | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
CWS Research2022-11-040
YouGov2022-10-232
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research2022-10-215
YouGov2022-10-194
Emerson College2022-10-181
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Texas Governor race?
Greg Abbott (R) won, by about 10.9 points (R+10.9).
When was the 2022 Texas Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.