Actual result
R+10.9
Final polls said
R+8.8
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CWS Research | R+11.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | R+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+9.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Siena College | R+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Civiqs | R+8.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | R+7.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | R+7.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | ActiVote | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Beacon Research | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research | 2022-11-04 | 786 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-23 | 1200 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 2022-10-21 | 973 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-19 | 817 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-18 | 1000 | R+9.7 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-18 | 649 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research | 2022-10-17 | 1264 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 2022-10-15 | 930 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-12 | 883 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-10 | 791 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-05 | 1058 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-09-24 | 1327 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-21 | 722 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-21 | 1000 | R+7.9 | 3 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-16 | 651 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | 2022-09-10 | 1172 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 2022-09-10 | 1268 | R+9.0 | 2 |