← all past elections
Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Texas Governor
In the 2022 Texas Governor race, Greg Abbott (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+10.9
Final polls said
R+8.8
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CWS Research | R+11.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | R+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+9.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | R+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Civiqs | R+8.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | R+7.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | R+7.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | ActiVote | R+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Beacon Research | R+3.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
CWS Research2022-11-040
YouGov2022-10-232
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research2022-10-215
YouGov2022-10-194
Emerson College2022-10-181
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Texas Governor race?
Greg Abbott (R) won, by about 10.9 points (R+10.9).
When was the 2022 Texas Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.