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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Wisconsin Governor
In the 2022 Wisconsin Governor race, Tony Evers (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
R+0.4
12 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Marquette University Law School | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Wick | R+0.3 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.6 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+1.9 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | Patriot Polling | R+4.4 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 66% | 0.119 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 57% | 0.186 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Civiqs2022-11-060
Research Co.2022-11-053
Data for Progress2022-11-045
Trafalgar Group2022-11-035
Siena College2022-10-291
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Wisconsin Governor race?
Tony Evers (D) won, by about 3.4 points (D+3.4).
When was the 2022 Wisconsin Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.