Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
R+0.4
12 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Marquette University Law School | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Wick | R+0.3 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.6 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+1.9 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Patriot Polling | R+4.4 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | 2022-11-06 | 739 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | EVEN | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1504 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-03 | 1095 | R+1.6 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-29 | 655 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Wick | 2022-10-28 | 1089 | R+0.3 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2022-10-28 | 679 | EVEN | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | R+1.9 | 5 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-10-22 | 801 | R+4.4 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-18 | 1376 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| SSRS | 2022-10-15 | 714 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2022-10-06 | 652 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-05 | 1137 | EVEN | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-09-26 | 574 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1012 | EVEN | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-22 | 999 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-22 | 500 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-17 | 860 | D+1.5 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-17 | 1087 | R+0.7 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-14 | 651 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Civiqs | 2022-09-12 | 780 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2022-09-08 | 632 | D+3.0 | 0 |