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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Wisconsin Governor
In the 2022 Wisconsin Governor race, Tony Evers (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
R+0.4
12 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | D+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SSRS | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research Co. | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Marquette University Law School | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Wick | R+0.3 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.6 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+1.9 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Data for Progress | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | R+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | Patriot Polling | R+4.4 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 57% | 0.186 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Civiqs2022-11-060
Research Co.2022-11-053
Data for Progress2022-11-045
Trafalgar Group2022-11-035
Siena College2022-10-291
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Wisconsin Governor race?
Tony Evers (D) won, by about 3.4 points (D+3.4).
When was the 2022 Wisconsin Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.