Actual result
D+5.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 4.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 76% | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.082 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-15 | 586 | D+1.0 | 4 |