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Toss-up · 2022 House
Minnesota House
In the 2022 Minnesota House race, Angie Craig (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 76% | 0.057 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.082 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-154
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Minnesota House race?
Angie Craig (D) won, by about 5.2 points (D+5.2).
When was the 2022 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.