Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.3 | 4.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 8 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.569 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.650 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-23 | 584 | D+1.0 | 2 |