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Toss-up · 2022 House
North Carolina House
In the 2022 North Carolina House race, Wiley Nickel (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.545 | ✗ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.650 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-232
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 North Carolina House race?
Wiley Nickel (D) won, by about 3.2 points (D+3.2).
When was the 2022 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.