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Toss-up · 2022 House
North Carolina House
In the 2022 North Carolina House race, Wiley Nickel (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.227 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.650 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-232
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 North Carolina House race?
Wiley Nickel (D) won, by about 3.2 points (D+3.2).
When was the 2022 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2022.