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Toss-up · 2022 House
New Mexico House
In the 2022 New Mexico House race, Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+16.3
Final polls said
D+18.1
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+18.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+18.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-272
Research & Polling Inc.2022-10-242
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Mexico House race?
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) won, by about 16.3 points (D+16.3).
When was the 2022 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2022.