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Toss-up · 2022 House
New York House
In the 2022 New York House race, Nicole Malliotakis (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+19.2
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | R+6.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2022-09-2913
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York House race?
Nicole Malliotakis (R) won, by about 19.2 points (R+19.2).
When was the 2022 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.