Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.1 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Data for Progress | R+8.0 | 13.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+9.6 | 14.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 69% | 0.471 | ✗ |
| 12 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2022-10-29 | 455 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-27 | 470 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2022-09-21 | 652 | R+9.6 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-08-19 | 1222 | R+8.0 | 13 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2022-08-07 | 480 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2022-07-27 | 407 | R+9.8 | 15 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-06-29 | 581 | R+3.0 | 8 |