Toss-up · 2022 House

New York House

In the 2022 New York House race, Marcus Molinaro (R) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

R+1.9

Final polls said

D+5.0

1 late poll · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department	R+3.0	1.1	✓
2	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	1.1	✓
3	Data for Progress	R+8.0	6.1	✓
4	Siena College	D+5.0	6.9	✗
5	American Pulse Research & Polling	R+9.6	7.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 54%	0.212	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 52%	0.270	✗
10	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 58%	0.336	✗
11	The Economist	Dem 59%	0.348	✗
12	Race to the WH	Dem 64%	0.410	✗
13	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 75%	0.558	✗
14	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗