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Toss-up · 2022 House
New York House
In the 2022 New York House race, Marcus Molinaro (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data for Progress | R+8.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+5.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Pulse Research & Polling | R+9.6 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 75% | 0.558 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2022-10-297
Siena College2022-09-277
American Pulse Research & Polling2022-09-218
Data for Progress2022-08-1913
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2022-08-078
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York House race?
Marcus Molinaro (R) won, by about 1.6 points (R+1.6).
When was the 2022 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2022.