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Toss-up · 2022 House
Virginia House
In the 2022 Virginia House race, Jennifer T. Wexton (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OnMessage Inc.2022-10-125
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Virginia House race?
Jennifer T. Wexton (D) won, by about 6.5 points (D+6.5).
When was the 2022 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2022.