Toss-up · 2022 House

Virginia House

In the 2022 Virginia House race, Jennifer T. Wexton (D) won by about 7 points.

Actual result

D+6.5

Final polls said

D+2.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	OnMessage Inc.	D+2.0	4.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
5	The Economist	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
6	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 89%	0.013	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓