Toss-up · 2022 Senate

New York Senate

In the 2022 New York Senate race, Charles E. Schumer (D) won by about 14 points.

Actual result

D+14.0

Final polls said

D+16.4

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	D+14.0	0.0	✓
2	Civiqs	D+15.0	1.0	✓
3	KAConsulting	D+12.0	2.0	✓
4	Quinnipiac University	D+12.0	2.0	✓
5	Data for Progress	D+17.0	3.0	✓
6	Trafalgar Group	D+10.6	3.4	✓
7	Emerson College	D+18.5	4.5	✓
8	Research Co.	D+20.0	6.0	✓
9	Siena College	D+20.0	6.0	✓
10	Marist College	D+20.0	6.0	✓
11	ActiVote	D+20.0	6.0	✓
12	Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis	D+27.0	13.0	✓

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	Fox News	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
10	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
13	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓