Actual result
D+14.0
Final polls said
D+16.4
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | D+15.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | KAConsulting | D+12.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+12.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data for Progress | D+17.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | D+10.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+18.1 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Emerson College | D+18.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Research Co. | D+20.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Siena College | D+20.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marist College | D+20.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | ActiVote | D+20.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+27.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-30 | 1000 | D+18.5 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-29 | 1198 | D+10.6 | 3 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-10-28 | 501 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-27 | 818 | D+17.0 | 3 |
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 2022-10-25 | 1001 | D+27.0 | 13 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-24 | 593 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-22 | 1000 | D+13.2 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-16 | 702 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-10-14 | 1617 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-13 | 707 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-05 | 1117 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-22 | 279 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-20 | 655 | D+19.0 | 5 |