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North Carolina Governor
Actual result
D+14.8
Final polls said
D+13.6
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+14.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | East Carolina University | D+15.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+13.7 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+16.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SSRS | D+16.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Morning Consult | D+16.2 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | AtlasIntel | D+16.5 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+12.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+18.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | D+11.5 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Rasmussen Reports | D+9.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1219 | D+16.5 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 1310 | D+11.1 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 860 | D+11.5 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1373 | D+9.4 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-29 | 1010 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 1056 | D+16.2 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 751 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1665 | D+14.6 | 0 |
| East Carolina University | 2024-10-26 | 1250 | D+15.7 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2024-10-26 | 872 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 750 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2024-10-24 | 853 | D+15.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-21 | 950 | D+12.5 | 2 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-19 | 650 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-19 | 1226 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2024-10-18 | 1164 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 843 | D+8.0 | 7 |