California House

Actual result

D+4.4

Final polls said

D+13.0

1 late poll · ✓

Model predicted

D+12.7

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+12.7	8.3	✓
2	SurveyUSA	D+13.0	8.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 95%	0.002	✓
5	VotePredictor	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
7	Split Ticket	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
SurveyUSA	2024-10-28	574	D+13.0	9