← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 House
California House
In the 2024 California House race, Mike Levin (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.3
Final polls said
D+13.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2024-10-289
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 California House race?
Mike Levin (D) won, by about 4.3 points (D+4.3).
When was the 2024 California House election held?
It was held in November 2024.