New York House

Actual result

D+9.2

Final polls said

EVEN

1 late poll · ✗

Model predicted

D+5.0

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+5.0	4.2	✓
2	McLaughlin & Associates	EVEN	9.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 87%	0.017	✓
3	VotePredictor	Dem 86%	0.019	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 78%	0.049	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 61%	0.152	✓
13	JHK Forecasts	Dem 54%	0.208	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—

Polls (1)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
McLaughlin & Associates	2024-10-16	400	EVEN	9