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Toss-up · 2024 House
New York House
In the 2024 New York House race, John W. Mannion (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | EVEN | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 78% | 0.049 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 13 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.208 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
McLaughlin & Associates2024-10-169
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 New York House race?
John W. Mannion (D) won, by about 9.1 points (D+9.1).
When was the 2024 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2024.