Toss-up · 2024 President

Florida President

In the 2024 Florida President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

R+13.1

Final polls said

R+6.0

13 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	R+9.0	4.1	✓
2	Emerson College	R+7.7	5.4	✓
3	Research Co.	R+7.0	6.1	✓
4	Stetson University	R+7.0	6.1	✓
5	Focaldata	R+7.0	6.1	✓
6	Cherry Communications	R+6.0	7.1	✓
7	St. Pete Polls	R+5.7	7.4	✓
8	Hunt Research	R+5.5	7.5	✓
9	Cygnal	R+5.1	8.0	✓
10	RMG Research	R+5.0	8.1	✓
11	Morning Consult	R+4.8	8.3	✓
12	Victory Insights	R+4.3	8.8	✓
13	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+4.0	9.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 96%	0.001	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 94%	0.003	✓
4	Silver Bulletin	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 91%	0.009	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 90%	0.011	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
14	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓