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Florida President
Actual result
R+13.1
Final polls said
R+6.0
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+11.2 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | R+9.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+7.7 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | R+7.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Stetson University | R+7.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Focaldata | R+7.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cherry Communications | R+6.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | St. Pete Polls | R+5.7 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Hunt Research | R+5.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cygnal | R+5.1 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | RMG Research | R+5.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Morning Consult | R+4.8 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Victory Insights | R+4.3 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+4.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 91% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 14 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Victory Insights | 2024-11-01 | 400 | R+4.3 | 9 |
| Stetson University | 2024-10-28 | 452 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 2022 | R+4.8 | 8 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-27 | 600 | R+5.1 | 8 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2024-10-24 | 1227 | R+5.7 | 7 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-23 | 897 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Hunt Research | 2024-10-19 | 1234 | R+5.5 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-19 | 860 | R+7.7 | 5 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1275 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 1250 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Cherry Communications | 2024-10-15 | 614 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| RMG Research | 2024-10-15 | 788 | R+5.0 | 8 |