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Toss-up · 2024 President
Michigan President
In the 2024 Michigan President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
D+1.0
39 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AtlasIntel | R+1.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | R+0.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Echelon Insights | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.1 | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | Patriot Polling | D+0.7 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Quantus Insights | D+0.7 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | Morning Consult | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+1.5 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 17 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 18 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | EPIC-MRA | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | Glengariff Group | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.5 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 24 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+4.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 25 | SSRS | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | Focaldata | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 27 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+5.1 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 62% | 0.142 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 61% | 0.366 | ✗ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 61% | 0.373 | ✗ |
| 9 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 62% | 0.382 | ✗ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 65% | 0.421 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.452 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
39 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-030
Trafalgar Group2024-11-021
Research Co.2024-11-023
Patriot Polling2024-11-022
AtlasIntel2024-11-010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Michigan President race?
Donald J Trump (R) won, by about 1.4 points (R+1.4).
When was the 2024 Michigan President election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.