Toss-up · 2024 President

Michigan President

In the 2024 Michigan President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 1 point.

Actual result

R+1.4

Final polls said

D+1.0

39 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	AtlasIntel	R+1.6	0.2	✓
2	Trafalgar Group	R+0.4	1.0	✓
3	Suffolk University	R+0.4	1.0	✓
4	The New York Times/Siena College	EVEN	1.4	✗
5	OnMessage Inc.	EVEN	1.4	✗
6	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	EVEN	1.4	✗
7	Echelon Insights	EVEN	1.4	✗
8	InsiderAdvantage	D+0.1	1.5	✗
9	Patriot Polling	D+0.7	2.1	✗
10	Quantus Insights	D+0.7	2.1	✗
11	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	2.4	✗
12	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+1.0	2.4	✗
13	The Washington Post	D+1.0	2.4	✗
14	Morning Consult	D+1.0	2.4	✗
15	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+1.5	2.9	✗
16	Emerson College	D+1.6	3.0	✗
17	Research Co.	D+2.0	3.4	✗
18	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	D+2.0	3.4	✗
19	Marist College	D+3.0	4.4	✗
20	YouGov	D+3.0	4.4	✗
21	EPIC-MRA	D+3.0	4.4	✗
22	Glengariff Group	D+3.0	4.4	✗
23	Quinnipiac University	D+3.5	4.9	✗
24	University of Massachusetts Lowell	D+4.0	5.4	✗
25	SSRS	D+5.0	6.4	✗
26	Focaldata	D+5.0	6.4	✗
27	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+5.1	6.5	✗

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 62%	0.142	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
3	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 57%	0.325	✗
5	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 61%	0.366	✗
7	Split Ticket	Dem 61%	0.372	✗
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 61%	0.373	✗
9	Silver Bulletin	Dem 62%	0.382	✗
10	Race to the WH	Dem 65%	0.421	✗
11	The Economist	Dem 67%	0.452	✗
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
13	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
14	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.810	✗