← past elections
Michigan President
Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
D+1.0
39 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.4 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | AtlasIntel | R+1.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | R+0.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Echelon Insights | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.1 | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Patriot Polling | D+0.7 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Quantus Insights | D+0.7 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 15 | Morning Consult | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 16 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+1.5 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 18 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 19 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 20 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 21 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 22 | EPIC-MRA | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 23 | Glengariff Group | D+3.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 24 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.5 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 25 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+4.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 26 | SSRS | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 27 | Focaldata | D+5.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 28 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+5.1 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 63% | 0.141 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 61% | 0.366 | ✗ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 61% | 0.373 | ✗ |
| 9 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 62% | 0.382 | ✗ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 65% | 0.421 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 67% | 0.452 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
Polls (39)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1113 | R+1.6 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1079 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 858 | D+0.7 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 1198 | R+1.5 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | D+0.1 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2024-10-31 | 585 | D+1.5 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-31 | 998 | EVEN | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 790 | D+1.6 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | EVEN | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1136 | R+0.8 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 1731 | EVEN | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-29 | 713 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-28 | 1214 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 942 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-28 | 908 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2024-10-28 | 600 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-28 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 983 | R+1.3 | 0 |
| Quantus Insights | 2024-10-27 | 844 | D+0.7 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2024-10-26 | 988 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-26 | 1003 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 728 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 1108 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 | 800 | R+0.6 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-26 | 1000 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2024-10-26 | 600 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-10-25 | 796 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2024-10-25 | 400 | D+5.1 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-25 | 500 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 726 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Glengariff Group | 2024-10-23 | 600 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 1115 | EVEN | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-20 | 600 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-19 | 1136 | D+3.5 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-19 | 1090 | R+1.8 | 0 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 705 | D+3.5 | 5 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 2092 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1008 | EVEN | 1 |