Toss-up · 2024 President

Minnesota President

In the 2024 Minnesota President race, Kamala D Harris (D) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

D+4.2

Final polls said

D+4.7

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Blueprint Polling	D+5.4	1.2	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	D+3.0	1.2	✓
3	Change Research	D+2.6	1.6	✓
4	AtlasIntel	D+2.0	2.2	✓
5	Research Co.	D+7.0	2.8	✓
6	SurveyUSA	D+8.0	3.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 88%	0.015	✓
10	Silver Bulletin	Dem 86%	0.018	✓
11	Split Ticket	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 76%	0.058	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 74%	0.069	✓