Minnesota President

Actual result

D+4.2

Final polls said

D+4.7

6 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+3.2

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	D+3.2	1.0	✓
2	Blueprint Polling	D+5.4	1.2	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	D+3.0	1.2	✓
4	Change Research	D+2.6	1.6	✓
5	AtlasIntel	D+2.0	2.2	✓
6	Research Co.	D+7.0	2.8	✓
7	SurveyUSA	D+8.0	3.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 88%	0.015	✓
10	Silver Bulletin	Dem 86%	0.018	✓
11	Split Ticket	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 76%	0.058	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	VotePredictor	Dem 73%	0.072	✓

Polls (6)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
AtlasIntel	2024-11-02	2065	D+2.0	2
Research Co.	2024-11-02	450	D+7.0	3
Blueprint Polling	2024-10-29	534	D+5.4	1
SurveyUSA	2024-10-26	728	D+8.0	4
Rasmussen Reports	2024-10-25	959	D+3.0	1
Change Research	2024-10-19	1734	D+2.6	2