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North Carolina President
Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+1.4
27 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.2 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | InsiderAdvantage | R+2.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | AtlasIntel | R+2.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | East Carolina University | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | R+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Morning Consult | R+1.8 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Patriot Polling | R+1.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+4.9 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.5 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 14 | Emerson College | R+0.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | Focaldata | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | SSRS | D+1.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.5 | 5.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 63% | 0.139 | ✓ |
| 7 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 61% | 0.149 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 59% | 0.165 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1219 | R+2.1 | 1 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 799 | R+1.6 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | R+2.2 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 1310 | R+3.5 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 860 | R+0.4 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1373 | R+3.9 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-30 | 1010 | D+2.5 | 6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 1123 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 949 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1665 | D+0.3 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 751 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 1056 | R+1.8 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 770 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2024-10-26 | 872 | R+1.5 | 2 |
| East Carolina University | 2024-10-26 | 1250 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-26 | 1091 | R+3.2 | 0 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 750 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2024-10-24 | 853 | EVEN | 3 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 679 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-21 | 950 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-19 | 1226 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-19 | 650 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-19 | 800 | R+1.9 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2024-10-18 | 1164 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 702 | R+1.5 | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 843 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 1987 | EVEN | 3 |