Toss-up · 2024 President

North Carolina President

In the 2024 North Carolina President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

R+3.2

Final polls said

R+1.4

27 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Trafalgar Group	R+3.2	0.0	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	R+3.0	0.2	✓
3	InsiderAdvantage	R+2.2	1.0	✓
4	AtlasIntel	R+2.1	1.1	✓
5	East Carolina University	R+2.0	1.2	✓
6	Marist College	R+2.0	1.2	✓
7	University of Massachusetts Lowell	R+2.0	1.2	✓
8	Morning Consult	R+1.8	1.4	✓
9	Patriot Polling	R+1.6	1.6	✓
10	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+1.5	1.7	✓
11	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	R+1.0	2.2	✓
12	YouGov	R+1.0	2.2	✓
13	Emerson College	R+0.4	2.8	✓
14	SurveyUSA	EVEN	3.2	✗
15	Focaldata	EVEN	3.2	✗
16	SSRS	D+1.0	4.2	✗
17	The New York Times/Siena College	D+2.5	5.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 86%	0.019	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 64%	0.130	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 64%	0.130	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 63%	0.139	✓
7	Silver Bulletin	Rep 61%	0.149	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 59%	0.165	✓
10	Split Ticket	Rep 58%	0.176	✓
11	The Economist	Rep 58%	0.176	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.360	✗