Toss-up · 2024 President

New Mexico President

In the 2024 New Mexico President race, Kamala D Harris (D) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

D+6.0

Final polls said

D+5.3

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	D+6.0	0.0	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	D+5.0	1.0	✓
3	Victory Insights	D+4.9	1.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 93%	0.004	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
11	Silver Bulletin	Dem 87%	0.017	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 82%	0.032	✓