New Mexico President

Actual result

D+6.0

Final polls said

D+5.3

3 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+4.2

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	D+6.0	0.0	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	D+5.0	1.0	✓
3	Victory Insights	D+4.9	1.1	✓
4	VotePredictor	D+4.2	1.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 93%	0.004	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
11	Silver Bulletin	Dem 87%	0.017	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
14	VotePredictor	Dem 81%	0.037	✓

Polls (3)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
Victory Insights	2024-11-02	600	D+4.9	1
SurveyUSA	2024-10-29	632	D+6.0	0
Rasmussen Reports	2024-10-25	749	D+5.0	1