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Ohio President
Actual result
R+11.2
Final polls said
R+7.8
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+11.2 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.8 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Morning Consult | R+9.2 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | J.L. Partners | R+9.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Focaldata | R+9.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | AtlasIntel | R+8.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | OnMessage Inc. | R+8.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Trafalgar Group | R+6.9 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Miami University | R+3.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-03 | 1095 | R+6.9 | 4 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-02 | 1022 | R+8.7 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 900 | R+11.2 | 0 |
| Miami University | 2024-10-29 | 859 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 1254 | R+9.2 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-26 | 1127 | R+6.1 | 5 |
| J.L. Partners | 2024-10-23 | 997 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 600 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 2161 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-15 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 4 |