Toss-up · 2024 President

Ohio President

In the 2024 Ohio President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 11 points.

Actual result

R+11.2

Final polls said

R+7.8

10 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+11.2	0.0	✓
2	Morning Consult	R+9.2	2.0	✓
3	J.L. Partners	R+9.0	2.2	✓
4	Focaldata	R+9.0	2.2	✓
5	AtlasIntel	R+8.7	2.5	✓
6	OnMessage Inc.	R+8.0	3.2	✓
7	YouGov	R+7.0	4.2	✓
8	Trafalgar Group	R+6.9	4.3	✓
9	Miami University	R+3.0	8.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	Fox News	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	The Economist	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	Silver Bulletin	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 95%	0.002	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
11	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 88%	0.014	✓