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Toss-up · 2024 President
Pennsylvania President
In the 2024 Pennsylvania President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.7
Final polls said
R+0.2
40 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quantus Insights | R+2.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Patriot Polling | R+0.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | R+0.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+0.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+0.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Morning Consult | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | SSRS | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | North Star Opinion Research | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.2 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 19 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | Muhlenberg College | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | Focaldata | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 27 | Echelon Insights | R+5.5 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 28 | Survation | D+2.7 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.070 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 3 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 51% | 0.237 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 51% | 0.256 | ✗ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.297 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
40 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-031
Trafalgar Group2024-11-020
Survation2024-11-024
Research Co.2024-11-023
Patriot Polling2024-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Pennsylvania President race?
Donald J Trump (R) won, by about 1.7 points (R+1.7).
When was the 2024 Pennsylvania President election held?
It was held in November 2024.