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Toss-up · 2024 President
Pennsylvania President
In the 2024 Pennsylvania President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.7
Final polls said
R+0.2
40 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quantus Insights | R+2.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Patriot Polling | R+0.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | R+0.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+0.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+0.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Morning Consult | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | SSRS | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | North Star Opinion Research | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.2 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 19 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | Muhlenberg College | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | Focaldata | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 27 | Echelon Insights | R+5.5 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 28 | Survation | D+2.7 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 29 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 73% | 0.071 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 3 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 51% | 0.237 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 51% | 0.256 | ✗ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.297 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
40 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-031
Trafalgar Group2024-11-020
Survation2024-11-024
Research Co.2024-11-023
Patriot Polling2024-11-021
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Pennsylvania President race?
Donald J Trump (R) won, by about 1.7 points (R+1.7).
When was the 2024 Pennsylvania President election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.