← past elections
Pennsylvania President
Actual result
R+1.7
Final polls said
R+0.2
40 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Quantus Insights | R+2.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Patriot Polling | R+0.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | AtlasIntel | R+0.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | R+0.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+2.8 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+0.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Morning Consult | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | SSRS | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | North Star Opinion Research | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.2 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 20 | Research Co. | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+1.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Data for Progress | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | Muhlenberg College | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 27 | Focaldata | D+2.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 28 | Echelon Insights | R+5.5 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 29 | Survation | D+2.7 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 30 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 74% | 0.070 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 3 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 51% | 0.237 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 51% | 0.244 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.255 | ✗ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 51% | 0.256 | ✗ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 53% | 0.281 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 55% | 0.297 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (40)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1840 | R+0.8 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1089 | R+1.7 | 0 |
| Survation | 2024-11-02 | 915 | D+2.7 | 4 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 903 | R+0.9 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 2049 | R+1.8 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-31 | 1527 | EVEN | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 1000 | R+0.7 | 1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1738 | R+1.3 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 1596 | EVEN | 2 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-29 | 699 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-28 | 908 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-28 | 600 | R+5.5 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-28 | 1400 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College | 2024-10-28 | 460 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-28 | 500 | EVEN | 2 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-28 | 1204 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 956 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1299 | R+2.4 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 1116 | EVEN | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-26 | 849 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-26 | 2186 | R+1.5 | 0 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 1538 | EVEN | 2 |
| Monmouth University | 2024-10-26 | 824 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2024-10-26 | 1057 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 819 | EVEN | 2 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 1273 | EVEN | 2 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2024-10-24 | 600 | EVEN | 2 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 1586 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-21 | 860 | R+1.7 | 0 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 500 | D+0.2 | 2 |
| Quantus Insights | 2024-10-19 | 840 | R+2.1 | 0 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-19 | 800 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 812 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-18 | 1084 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 2373 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1256 | EVEN | 2 |