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South Carolina President
Actual result
R+17.8
Final polls said
R+12.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+20.2 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | East Carolina University | R+13.1 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Citadel | R+12.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Silver Bulletin | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | 2024-10-21 | 1136 | R+12.0 | 6 |
| East Carolina University | 2024-10-20 | 950 | R+13.1 | 5 |