Toss-up · 2024 President

Texas President

In the 2024 Texas President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by about 14 points.

Actual result

R+13.7

Final polls said

R+7.6

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	R+10.5	3.2	✓
2	AtlasIntel	R+10.2	3.5	✓
3	Cygnal	R+8.0	5.7	✓
4	Emerson College	R+7.2	6.5	✓
5	Morning Consult	R+6.7	7.0	✓
6	Rasmussen Reports	R+6.0	7.7	✓
7	University of Texas at Tyler	R+5.0	8.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
3	Silver Bulletin	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 95%	0.002	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
14	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓