Texas President

Actual result

R+13.7

Final polls said

R+7.6

7 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

R+13.6

✓

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	VotePredictor	R+13.6	0.1	✓
2	The New York Times/Siena College	R+10.5	3.2	✓
3	AtlasIntel	R+10.2	3.5	✓
4	Cygnal	R+8.0	5.7	✓
5	Emerson College	R+7.2	6.5	✓
6	Morning Consult	R+6.7	7.0	✓
7	Rasmussen Reports	R+6.0	7.7	✓
8	University of Texas at Tyler	R+5.0	8.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
3	Silver Bulletin	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 95%	0.002	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
14	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (7)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
AtlasIntel	2024-11-02	2434	R+10.2	4
Cygnal	2024-10-27	600	R+8.0	6
Morning Consult	2024-10-26	2120	R+6.7	7
The New York Times/Siena College	2024-10-24	1180	R+10.5	3
Rasmussen Reports	2024-10-24	1002	R+6.0	8
Emerson College	2024-10-19	815	R+7.2	6
University of Texas at Tyler	2024-10-17	956	R+5.0	9