Toss-up · 2024 President

Wisconsin President

In the 2024 Wisconsin President race, Donald J Trump (R) won by less than a point.

Actual result

R+0.8

Final polls said

D+0.5

33 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	OnMessage Inc.	R+1.0	0.2	✓
2	Morning Consult	R+0.6	0.2	✓
3	AtlasIntel	R+1.1	0.3	✓
4	InsiderAdvantage	R+1.3	0.5	✓
5	Emerson College	R+0.3	0.5	✓
6	Suffolk University	R+1.4	0.6	✓
7	Quantus Insights	R+0.2	0.6	✓
8	Echelon Insights	EVEN	0.8	✗
9	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	0.8	✗
10	Patriot Polling	D+0.3	1.1	✗
11	TIPP Insights	D+0.5	1.3	✗
12	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+1.0	1.8	✗
13	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	D+1.0	1.8	✗
14	Trafalgar Group	D+1.2	2.0	✗
15	Rasmussen Reports	R+3.0	2.2	✓
16	Marquette University Law School	D+1.5	2.3	✗
17	Marist College	D+2.0	2.8	✗
18	The New York Times/Siena College	D+2.5	3.3	✗
19	Research Co.	D+3.0	3.8	✗
20	Focaldata	D+3.0	3.8	✗
21	YouGov	D+4.0	4.8	✗
22	SSRS	D+6.0	6.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 69%	0.096	✓
2	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 51%	0.240	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
5	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 56%	0.319	✗
7	Race to the WH	Dem 57%	0.321	✗
8	Split Ticket	Dem 57%	0.325	✗
9	Silver Bulletin	Dem 59%	0.349	✗
10	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 59%	0.350	✗
11	The Economist	Dem 62%	0.378	✗
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
13	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
14	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.562	✗