← past elections
Wisconsin President
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
D+0.5
33 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Morning Consult | R+0.6 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | AtlasIntel | R+1.1 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.3 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+0.3 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quantus Insights | R+0.2 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Echelon Insights | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | Patriot Polling | D+0.3 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | TIPP Insights | D+0.5 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+1.0 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.2 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 17 | Marquette University Law School | D+1.5 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 18 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.5 | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 20 | Research Co. | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Focaldata | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 23 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 51% | 0.240 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 56% | 0.319 | ✗ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 57% | 0.321 | ✗ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 57% | 0.325 | ✗ |
| 9 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 59% | 0.349 | ✗ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 59% | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 11 | The Economist | Dem 62% | 0.378 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (33)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 869 | R+1.1 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1086 | D+1.2 | 2 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 835 | D+0.3 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 728 | R+1.1 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | R+1.3 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 800 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 673 | R+0.1 | 1 |
| Quantus Insights | 2024-10-29 | 637 | R+0.2 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-29 | 1305 | D+2.5 | 3 |
| TIPP Insights | 2024-10-29 | 831 | D+0.5 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-29 | 932 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-29 | 786 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-28 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-28 | 1330 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 867 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-27 | 818 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1470 | R+0.6 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-26 | 746 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 540 | R+0.6 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 | 800 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 736 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-21 | 557 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-21 | 500 | R+1.4 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-21 | 800 | R+0.7 | 0 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 600 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2024-10-20 | 753 | D+1.5 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-19 | 1083 | R+0.2 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-19 | 1108 | EVEN | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-18 | 624 | EVEN | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 622 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Focaldata | 2024-10-17 | 1799 | D+3.0 | 4 |