← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 Senate
California Senate
In the 2024 California Senate race, Adam B. Schiff (D) won by about 18 points.
Actual result
D+17.8
Final polls said
D+23.1
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley | D+20.5 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | D+24.2 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+24.5 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2024-11-027
Cygnal2024-10-286
University of California Berkeley2024-10-253
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 California Senate race?
Adam B. Schiff (D) won, by about 17.8 points (D+17.8).
When was the 2024 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.