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California Senate
Actual result
D+17.8
Final polls said
D+23.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+24.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of California Berkeley | D+20.5 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | D+24.2 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+24.5 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+24.6 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+24.5 | 7 |
| Cygnal | 2024-10-28 | 611 | D+24.2 | 6 |
| University of California Berkeley | 2024-10-25 | 4341 | D+20.5 | 3 |