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Michigan Senate
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+3.0
34 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.1 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | AtlasIntel | D+1.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Patriot Polling | D+1.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Echelon Insights | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Tarrance Group | R+2.0 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Emerson College | D+3.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 16 | Glengariff Group | D+3.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 17 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 21 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 22 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Morning Consult | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Quinnipiac University | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 27 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+9.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 80% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | Dem 60% | 0.158 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (34)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1113 | D+1.1 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1079 | R+0.1 | 0 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 858 | D+1.5 | 1 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 1198 | D+1.3 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | D+0.6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2024-10-31 | 585 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-31 | 998 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 790 | D+3.7 | 3 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1136 | D+3.2 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-29 | 713 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-28 | 600 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-28 | 1214 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2024-10-28 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-28 | 908 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 942 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 983 | D+1.8 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2024-10-27 | 620 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-27 | 1112 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2024-10-26 | 988 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 | 800 | D+0.6 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-26 | 1000 | D+2.4 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2024-10-26 | 600 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-26 | 1003 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2024-10-25 | 400 | D+0.6 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-25 | 500 | D+1.8 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 726 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-10-25 | 796 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Glengariff Group | 2024-10-23 | 600 | D+3.7 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-20 | 600 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-19 | 1136 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-19 | 1090 | D+1.4 | 1 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2024-10-17 | 1008 | D+7.0 | 7 |