Toss-up · 2024 Senate

Michigan Senate

In the 2024 Michigan Senate race, Elissa Slotkin (D) won by less than a point.

Actual result

D+0.3

Final polls said

D+3.0

34 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	InsiderAdvantage	D+0.6	0.3	✓
2	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+0.6	0.3	✓
3	Trafalgar Group	R+0.1	0.4	✗
4	OnMessage Inc.	D+1.0	0.7	✓
5	AtlasIntel	D+1.1	0.8	✓
6	Patriot Polling	D+1.5	1.2	✓
7	Rasmussen Reports	R+1.0	1.3	✗
8	Suffolk University	D+1.8	1.5	✓
9	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+2.0	1.7	✓
10	The New York Times/Siena College	D+2.0	1.7	✓
11	Echelon Insights	D+2.0	1.7	✓
12	Tarrance Group	R+2.0	2.3	✗
13	The Washington Post	D+3.0	2.7	✓
14	Emerson College	D+3.7	3.4	✓
15	Glengariff Group	D+3.7	3.4	✓
16	Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research	D+4.0	3.7	✓
17	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+4.0	3.7	✓
18	EPIC-MRA	D+5.0	4.7	✓
19	Research Co.	D+6.0	5.7	✓
20	Marist College	D+6.0	5.7	✓
21	SSRS	D+6.0	5.7	✓
22	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+7.0	6.7	✓
23	Morning Consult	D+8.0	7.7	✓
24	Quinnipiac University	D+8.0	7.7	✓
25	YouGov	D+9.0	8.7	✓
26	University of Massachusetts Lowell	D+9.0	8.7	✓

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 88%	0.015	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Dem 80%	0.042	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 79%	0.044	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 76%	0.059	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Split Ticket	Dem 71%	0.084	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 66%	0.116	✓
9	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 61%	0.153	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—