← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Michigan Senate
In the 2024 Michigan Senate race, Elissa Slotkin (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+3.0
34 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.1 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | D+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | AtlasIntel | D+1.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Patriot Polling | D+1.5 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Echelon Insights | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Tarrance Group | R+2.0 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Emerson College | D+3.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 15 | Glengariff Group | D+3.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 16 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | EPIC-MRA | D+5.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Research Co. | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 21 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 22 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+7.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | Morning Consult | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Quinnipiac University | D+8.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+9.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 80% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.154 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
34 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-031
Trafalgar Group2024-11-020
Research Co.2024-11-026
Patriot Polling2024-11-021
AtlasIntel2024-11-011
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Michigan Senate race?
Elissa Slotkin (D) won, by about 0.3 points (D+0.3).
When was the 2024 Michigan Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.