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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race, David McCormick (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+2.4
33 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+0.2 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University | D+1.0 | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.1 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | Patriot Polling | D+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Echelon Insights | R+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | AtlasIntel | D+2.7 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.8 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | Morning Consult | D+2.9 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Muhlenberg College | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 19 | North Star Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 20 | Suffolk University | D+3.6 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 24 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 25 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 26 | Survation | D+7.6 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 59% | 0.350 | ✗ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.531 | ✗ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.626 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 91% | 0.835 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
34 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-033
Trafalgar Group2024-11-021
Survation2024-11-028
Research Co.2024-11-022
Patriot Polling2024-11-022
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race?
David McCormick (R) won, by about 0.2 points (R+0.2).
When was the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.