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Pennsylvania Senate
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+2.4
33 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.4
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+0.2 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University | D+1.0 | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.1 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Patriot Polling | D+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Echelon Insights | R+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | AtlasIntel | D+2.7 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.8 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | Morning Consult | D+2.9 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Muhlenberg College | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 19 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 20 | North Star Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 21 | Suffolk University | D+3.6 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 22 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 24 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 25 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 26 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 27 | Survation | D+7.6 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 59% | 0.347 | ✗ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.531 | ✗ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.626 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 91% | 0.835 | ✗ |
Polls (34)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 | 1840 | D+2.7 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-11-02 | 1089 | R+1.5 | 1 |
| Survation | 2024-11-02 | 915 | D+7.6 | 8 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 | 450 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-02 | 903 | D+1.4 | 2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 | 2049 | D+2.1 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 | 800 | D+1.1 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-31 | 1527 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-31 | 1000 | D+0.2 | 0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 | 1738 | D+3.6 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2024-10-30 | 800 | EVEN | 0 |
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-29 | 699 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-28 | 1400 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2024-10-28 | 908 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-28 | 600 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Muhlenberg College | 2024-10-28 | 460 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2024-10-28 | 500 | D+3.6 | 4 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-28 | 1204 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-28 | 947 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-27 | 1299 | D+2.1 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2024-10-26 | 849 | EVEN | 0 |
| Monmouth University | 2024-10-26 | 824 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 | 800 | EVEN | 0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2024-10-26 | 1057 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-26 | 2186 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-26 | 1538 | D+2.9 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2024-10-25 | 819 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-25 | 1249 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2024-10-24 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2024-10-21 | 860 | D+1.4 | 2 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2024-10-20 | 500 | D+2.8 | 3 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | 2024-10-19 | 800 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2024-10-18 | 1084 | R+0.4 | 0 |
| Monmouth University | 2022-10-29 | 608 | D+4.0 | 1 |