← all past elections
Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race, David McCormick (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+2.4
33 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+0.2 | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Monmouth University | D+1.0 | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.1 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 7 | Patriot Polling | D+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Research Co. | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Echelon Insights | R+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | AtlasIntel | D+2.7 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.8 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | Morning Consult | D+2.9 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Muhlenberg College | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | The Washington Post | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 19 | North Star Opinion Research | D+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 20 | Suffolk University | D+3.6 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 22 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 24 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 25 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 26 | Survation | D+7.6 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 59% | 0.351 | ✗ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 66% | 0.436 | ✗ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 73% | 0.531 | ✗ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.626 | ✗ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 91% | 0.835 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
34 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
AtlasIntel2024-11-033
Trafalgar Group2024-11-021
Survation2024-11-028
Research Co.2024-11-022
Patriot Polling2024-11-022
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate race?
David McCormick (R) won, by about 0.2 points (R+0.2).
When was the 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.