VotePredictor
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New Jersey Governor

Actual result
D+14.4
Final polls said
D+5.3
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.0
✓
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Zogby AnalyticsD+12.02.4✓
2GQRD+12.02.4✓
3YouGovD+10.04.4✓
4Concord Public Opinion PartnersD+9.05.4✓
5Quinnipiac UniversityD+8.06.4✓
6Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchD+7.07.4✓
7A2 InsightsD+4.99.5✓
8Suffolk UniversityD+4.010.4✓
9VotePredictorD+3.011.4✓
10Quantus InsightsD+3.011.4✓
11KAConsultingD+3.011.4✓
12Research Co.D+2.012.4✓
13Emerson CollegeD+2.012.4✓
14Trafalgar/Insider AdvantageD+1.113.3✓
15co/efficientD+1.013.4✓
16AtlasIntelD+0.913.5✓

Polls (15)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Research Co.2025-11-03450D+2.012
Zogby Analytics2025-11-021205D+12.02
Suffolk University2025-10-28500D+4.010
AtlasIntel2025-10-281639D+0.914
Emerson College2025-10-271000D+2.012
Quantus Insights2025-10-271380D+3.011
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2025-10-26956D+7.07
Quinnipiac University2025-10-261166D+8.06
A2 Insights2025-10-25812D+4.910
co/efficient2025-10-25995D+1.013
YouGov2025-10-231143D+10.04
GQR2025-10-181000D+12.02
Concord Public Opinion Partners2025-10-17605D+9.05
KAConsulting2025-10-16601D+3.011
Trafalgar/Insider Advantage2025-10-15800D+1.113