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Virginia Governor

Actual result
D+15.4
Final polls said
D+9.8
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.8
✓
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1YouGovD+15.00.4✓
2Research Co.D+17.01.6✓
3State NavigateD+13.02.4✓
4Echelon InsightsD+12.03.4✓
5The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and GovernmentD+12.03.4✓
6Emerson CollegeD+11.24.2✓
7InsiderAdvantageD+10.25.2✓
8Roanoke CollegeD+10.05.4✓
9Gravis Marketing/Kaplan StrategiesD+10.05.4✓
10Clarity Campaign LabsD+10.05.4✓
11AtlasIntelD+9.06.4✓
12Quantus InsightsD+8.76.7✓
13Suffolk UniversityD+8.66.8✓
14A2 InsightsD+8.17.3✓
15VotePredictorD+7.87.5✓
16Christopher Newport UniversityD+7.08.4✓
17Trafalgar GroupD+6.58.9✓
18co/efficientD+5.010.4✓
19Trafalgar/Insider AdvantageD+4.111.3✓

Polls (21)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Research Co.2025-11-03450D+17.02
Quantus Insights2025-11-031201D+8.77
InsiderAdvantage2025-11-03800D+10.25
Trafalgar Group2025-11-021057D+6.59
Emerson College2025-10-31880D+11.24
Echelon Insights2025-10-30606D+12.03
Trafalgar/Insider Advantage2025-10-28800D+4.111
AtlasIntel2025-10-281325D+9.06
Roanoke College2025-10-251041D+10.05
A2 Insights2025-10-25776D+8.17
YouGov2025-10-231162D+15.00
Christopher Newport University2025-10-22803D+7.08
Suffolk University2025-10-20500D+8.67
Quantus Insights2025-10-201302D+5.010
State Navigate2025-10-19689D+13.02
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government2025-10-18927D+12.03
Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies2025-10-17556D+10.05
State Navigate2025-10-17614D+13.02
Clarity Campaign Labs2025-10-16958D+10.05
co/efficient2025-10-16937D+5.010
Trafalgar/Insider Advantage2025-10-141039D+2.213