Toss-up · 2025 Governor

Virginia Governor

In the 2025 Virginia Governor race, the Democrat (D) won by about 15 points.

Actual result

D+15.4

Final polls said

D+9.8

20 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	YouGov	D+15.0	0.4	✓
2	Research Co.	D+17.0	1.6	✓
3	State Navigate	D+13.0	2.4	✓
4	Echelon Insights	D+12.0	3.4	✓
5	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	D+12.0	3.4	✓
6	Emerson College	D+11.2	4.2	✓
7	InsiderAdvantage	D+10.2	5.2	✓
8	Roanoke College	D+10.0	5.4	✓
9	Gravis Marketing/Kaplan Strategies	D+10.0	5.4	✓
10	Clarity Campaign Labs	D+10.0	5.4	✓
11	AtlasIntel	D+9.0	6.4	✓
12	Quantus Insights	D+8.7	6.7	✓
13	Suffolk University	D+8.6	6.8	✓
14	A2 Insights	D+8.1	7.3	✓
15	Christopher Newport University	D+7.0	8.4	✓
16	Trafalgar Group	D+6.5	8.9	✓
17	co/efficient	D+5.0	10.4	✓
18	Trafalgar/Insider Advantage	D+4.1	11.3	✓