Michigan House
William Lawrence (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 Michigan House race — about a 66% chance, winning by about 4 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: no polls of the race yet, so it leans on the seat's history and the national environment, predicting D+3.8 — a 66% Democratic win.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan House race?
VotePredictor's model favors William Lawrence (D), with roughly a 66% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.8.
What do the polls say in the Michigan House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Global Strategy Group (2026-08-13), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Michigan House race?
William Lawrence is the Democratic candidate; Tom Barrett is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Michigan House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Michigan House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.