Pennsylvania House
The 2026 Pennsylvania House race is essentially a toss-up: Paige Cognetti (D) holds a narrow 52% edge, projected to win by less than a point. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: no polls of the race yet, so it leans on the seat's history and the national environment, predicting D+0.5 — a 52% Democratic win.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Pennsylvania House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Paige Cognetti (D), with roughly a 52% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+0.5. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Pennsylvania House race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Lake Research Partners (2026-06-23), showed D+2.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+0.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Pennsylvania House race?
Paige Cognetti is the Democratic candidate; Rob Bresnahan is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Pennsylvania House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Pennsylvania House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.