TX-15 House
Bobby Pulido (D) is a slight favorite to win the 2026 TX-15 House race — about a 56% chance, winning by about 2 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+2.5 — a 56% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 TX-15 House race?
VotePredictor's model favors Bobby Pulido (D), with roughly a 56% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+2.5.
What do the polls say in the TX-15 House race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center (2026-07-30), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+2.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 TX-15 House race?
Bobby Pulido is the Democratic candidate; Monica De La Cruz is the Republican.
When is the 2026 TX-15 House election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the TX-15 House race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.